Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series. PARTICIPANTS: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. INTERVENTION: A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation. RESULTS: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18042742.

Correction: Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003269.].

Associations between trajectories of obesity prevalence in English primary school children and the UK soft drinks industry levy: An interrupted time series analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18042742.

Vaccine Confidence and Hesitancy at the Start of COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment in the UK: An Embedded Mixed-Methods Study.

Background: Approval for the use of COVID-19 vaccines has been granted in a number of countries but there are concerns that vaccine uptake may be low amongst certain groups. Methods: This study used a mixed methods approach based on online survey and an embedded quantitative/qualitative design to explore perceptions and attitudes that were associated with intention to either accept or refuse offers of vaccination in different demographic groups during the early stages of the UK's mass COVID-19 vaccination programme (December 2020). Analysis used multivariate logistic regression, structural text modeling and anthropological assessments. Results: Of 4,535 respondents, 85% (n = 3,859) were willing to have a COVID-19 vaccine. The rapidity of vaccine development and uncertainties about safety were common reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. There was no evidence for the widespread influence of mis-information, although broader vaccine hesitancy was associated with intentions to refuse COVID-19 vaccines (OR 20.60, 95% CI 14.20-30.30, p < 0.001). Low levels of trust in the decision-making (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.08, 2.48, p = 0.021) and truthfulness (OR 8.76, 95% CI 4.15-19.90, p < 0.001) of the UK government were independently associated with higher odds of refusing COVID-19 vaccines. Compared to political centrists, conservatives and liberals were, respectively, more (OR 2.05, 95%CI 1.51-2.80, p < 0.001) and less (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.22-0.41, p < 0.001) likely to refuse offered vaccines. Those who were willing to be vaccinated cited both personal and public protection as reasons, with some alluding to having a sense of collective responsibility. Conclusion: Dominant narratives of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy are misconceived as primarily being driven by misinformation. Key indicators of UK vaccine acceptance include prior behaviors, transparency of the scientific process of vaccine development, mistrust in science and leadership and individual political views. Vaccine programmes should leverage the sense of altruism, citizenship and collective responsibility that motivated many participants to get vaccinated.

Adult retrospective report of child abuse and prospective indicators of childhood harm: a population birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aim to determine whether adult retrospective report of child abuse is associated with greater risk of prospectively assessed harmful environments in childhood. We assessed possible recall basis by adult depression status. METHODS: At 45 years, participants of the 1958 British birth cohort (N = 9308) reported a range of abuse types (by 16 years). Prospective data, ages 7-16 years, were obtained for impoverished upbringing, hazardous conditions, anti-social behaviours and 16 years poor parent-child relationships. We estimated associations between retrospective report of child abuse and prospectively measured harm using (i) odds ratios (ORs, 95% confidence intervals) and (ii) positive predictive values (PPVs). PPVs were calculated stratified by adult depression status. RESULTS: Prevalence of retrospectively reported abuse ranged from 10.7% (psychological) to 1.60% (sexual) and 14.8% reported ≥ 1 type; prospectively recorded harm ranged from 10% (hazardous conditions/poor parent-child relationships) to 20% (anti-social behaviours). Adults retrospectively reporting abuse were more likely to have had harmful childhood environments: 52.4% had ≥ 1 indicator of harm (vs. 35.6% among others); ORsex-adjusted for poor relationships with parents was 2.98 (2.50, 3.54). For retrospectively reported (vs. none) abuse, there was a trend of increasing relative risk ratio with number of harms, from 1.75 (1.50, 2.03) for 1 to 4.68 (3.39, 6.45) for 3/4 childhood harms. The PPV of ≥ 1 prospectively recorded harm did not differ between depressed (0.58 (0.52, 0.64)) and non-depressed (0.58 (0.55, 0.61)) groups. CONCLUSIONS: In a population cohort, adult retrospective report of child abuse was associated with several harms, prospectively measured from childhood to adolescence, providing support for the validity of retrospective report-based research. Findings suggest retrospectively reported child abuse is not biased by depression in adulthood.

Child maltreatment, early life socioeconomic disadvantage and all-cause mortality in mid-adulthood: findings from a prospective British birth cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Early-life adversities (ELAs) such as child maltreatment (neglect and abuse) and socioeconomic disadvantage have been associated with adult mortality. However, evidence is sparse for specific types of ELA. We aimed to establish whether specific ELAs (ie, different types of child maltreatment and socioeconomic disadvantage) were associated independently with all-cause mortality in mid-adulthood and to examine potential intermediary pathways. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 1958 British birth cohort: a longitudinal, population-based sample of individuals born in Great Britain during a single week in March 1958. PARTICIPANTS: 9310 males and females with data on child maltreatment and mortality (44/45-58 years). OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality follow-up from 2002/2003 to 2016 when participants were aged 44/45-58 years. Death was ascertained via the NHS Central Register (N=296) or cohort maintenance activities (N=16). RESULTS: Prevalence of ELAs ranged from 1.6% (sexual abuse) to 11% (psychological abuse). Several, but not all, ELAs were associated with increased risk of premature death, independent of covariates and other adversities; adjusted HRs were 2.64 (95% CI 1.52 to 4.59) for sexual abuse, 1.93 (95% CI 1.45 to 2.58) for socioeconomic disadvantage, 1.73 (95% CI 1.11 to 2.71) for physical abuse and 1.43 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.98) for neglect. After adjustment for covariates and other adversities, no associations with mortality were observed for psychological and witnessing abuse. Regarding potential intermediaries (including adult socioeconomic factors, behaviours, adiposity, mental health and cardiometabolic markers), most associations attenuated after accounting for adult health behaviours (particularly smoking). In addition, early-life socioeconomic disadvantage and neglect associations attenuated after accounting for adult socioeconomic factors. The association for sexual abuse and premature mortality was largely unaffected by potential intermediaries. CONCLUSIONS: Associations with premature mortality varied by type of ELA: associations for sexual and physical abuse, neglect and socioeconomic disadvantage were independent of each other. Different types of ELAs could influence premature mortality via different pathways; this requires further research.

Early-Life Socioeconomic Position and the Accumulation of Health-Related Deficits by Midlife in the 1958 British Birth Cohort Study.

Reducing population levels of frailty is an important goal, and preventing its development in midadulthood could be pivotal. There is limited evidence on associations between childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and frailty. Using data on the 1958 British birth cohort (followed from 1958 to 2016; n = 8,711), we aimed to 1) establish the utility of measuring frailty in midlife, by examining associations between a 34-item frailty index at age 50 years (FI50y) and mortality at ages 50-58 years, and 2) examine associations between early-life SEP and FI50y and investigate whether these associations were explained by adult SEP. Hazard ratios for mortality increased with increasing frailty; for example, the sex-adjusted hazard ratio for the highest quintile of FI50y versus the lowest was 4.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.64, 6.25). Lower early-life SEP was associated with higher FI50y. Compared with participants born in the highest social class, the estimated total effect on FI50y was 42.0% (95% CI: 35.5, 48.4) for participants born in the lowest class, with the proportion mediated by adult SEP being 0.45% (95% CI: 0.35, 0.55). Mediation by adult SEP was negligible for other early-life SEP classes. Findings suggest that early-life SEP is associated with frailty and that adult SEP only partially explains this association. Results highlight the importance of improving socioeconomic circumstances across the life course to reduce inequalities in midlife frailty.

Adult obesity and mid-life physical functioning in two British birth cohorts: investigating the mediating role of physical inactivity.

BACKGROUND: Associations between obesity and physical inactivity are bi-directional. Both are associated with physical functioning (PF, ability to perform physical tasks of daily living) but whether obesity influences PF via inactivity is unknown. We investigated whether mid-adult obesity trajectories were associated with subsequent PF and mediated by inactivity. METHODS: Body mass index (BMI; kg/m²) and inactivity were recorded at: 36, 43, 53 and 60-64 years in the 1946 Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development (1946-NSHD; n = 2427), and at 33, 42 and 50 years in the 1958 National Child Development Study (1958-NCDS; n = 8674). Poor PF was defined as the lowest (gender and cohort-specific) 10% on the Short-form 36 Physical Component Summary subscale at 60-64 years (1946-NSHD) and 50 years (1958-NCDS). Estimated randomized-interventional-analogue natural direct (rNDE) and indirect (rNIE) effects of obesity trajectories on PF via inactivity are expressed as risk ratios [overall total effect (rTE) is rNDE multiplied by rNIE]. RESULTS: In both cohorts, most individuals (∼68%) were never obese in adulthood, 16-30% became obese and ≤11% were always obese. In 1946-NSHD, rTE of incident obesity at 43 years (vs never) on poor PF was 2.32 (1.13, 3.51); at 53 years it was 1.53 (0.91, 2.15). rNIEs via inactivity were 1.02 (0.97, 1.07) and 1.02 (0.99, 1.04), respectively. Estimated rTE of persistent obesity from 36 years was 2.91 (1.14, 4.69), with rNIE of 1.03 (0.96, 1.10). In 1958-NCDS, patterns of association were similar, albeit weaker. CONCLUSIONS: Longer duration of obesity was associated with increased risk of poor PF. Inactivity played a small mediating role. Findings reinforce the importance of preventing and delaying obesity onset to protect against poor PF.

Better governance, better access: practising responsible data sharing in the METADAC governance infrastructure.

BACKGROUND: Genomic and biosocial research data about individuals is rapidly proliferating, bringing the potential for novel opportunities for data integration and use. The scale, pace and novelty of these applications raise a number of urgent sociotechnical, ethical and legal questions, including optimal methods of data storage, management and access. Although the open science movement advocates unfettered access to research data, many of the UK's longitudinal cohort studies operate systems of managed data access, in which access is governed by legal and ethical agreements between stewards of research datasets and researchers wishing to make use of them. Amongst other things, these agreements aim to respect the reasonable expectations of the research participants who provided data and samples, as expressed in the consent process. Arguably, responsible data management and governance of data and sample use are foundational to the consent process in longitudinal studies and are an important source of trustworthiness in the eyes of those who contribute data to genomic and biosocial research. METHODS: This paper presents an ethnographic case study exploring the foundational principles of a governance infrastructure for Managing Ethico-social, Technical and Administrative issues in Data ACcess (METADAC), which are operationalised through a committee known as the METADAC Access Committee. METADAC governs access to phenotype, genotype and 'omic' data and samples from five UK longitudinal studies. FINDINGS: Using the example of METADAC, we argue that three key structural features are foundational for practising responsible data sharing: independence and transparency; interdisciplinarity; and participant-centric decision-making. We observe that the international research community is proactively working towards optimising the use of research data, integrating/linking these data with routine data generated by health and social care services and other administrative data services to improve the analysis, interpretation and utility of these data. The governance of these new complex data assemblages will require a range of expertise from across a number of domains and disciplines, including that of study participants. Human-mediated decision-making bodies will be central to ensuring achievable, reasoned and responsible decisions about the use of these data; the METADAC model described in this paper provides an example of how this could be realised.

Frailty is an independent predictor of incident dementia: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

The aim of this study was to determine whether frailty in older adults is associated with the risk of subsequent dementia. A total of 8,722 older adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were followed-up every two years until they reported a diagnosis of dementia, died, or were right censored. Frailty was defined using a frailty index comprised of 47 health deficits. To test if cognitive function influences the relationship between frailty and incident dementia, the analyses were repeated according to lower or upper three quartiles of baseline cognitive function. Competing risks regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate whether the degree of baseline frailty was associated with incident dementia. Compared with non-frail participants, pre-frail (HR: 1.51 95%CI [1.12-2.02]) and frail participants (HR: 1.73 95%CI [1.22-2.43]) had a higher risk of developing dementia, after adjustment for covariates. The association between frailty and incident dementia was significant for adults in the upper three quartiles of global cognitive function (HR: 3.48 95%CI [1.98-6.12]), but not for adults who were in the lowest quartile of cognitive function (HR: 1.13 95%CI [0.74-1.71]). Frailty should be monitored alongside cognitive functioning when assessing risk factors for dementia in older adults.

Physical activity and trajectories of frailty among older adults: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Frail older adults are heavy users of health and social care. In order to reduce the costs associated with frailty in older age groups, safe and cost-effective strategies are required that will reduce the incidence and severity of frailty. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether self-reported intensity of physical activity (sedentary, mild, moderate or vigorous) performed at least once a week can significantly reduce trajectories of frailty in older adults who are classified as non-frail at baseline (Rockwood's Frailty Index [FI] ≤ 0.25). METHODS: Multi-level growth curve modelling was used to assess trajectories of frailty in 8649 non-frail adults aged 50 and over and according to baseline self-reported intensity of physical activity. Frailty was measured in five-year age cohorts based on age at baseline (50-54; 55-59; 60-64; 65-69; 70-74; 75-79; 80+) on up to 6 occasions, providing an average of 10 years of follow-up. All models were adjusted for baseline sex, education, wealth, cohabitation, smoking, and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Compared with the sedentary reference group, mild physical activity was insufficient to significantly slow the progression of frailty, moderate physical activity reduced the progression of frailty in some age groups (particularly ages 65 and above) and vigorous activity significantly reduced the trajectory of frailty progression in all older adults. CONCLUSION: Healthy non-frail older adults require higher intensities of physical activity for continued improvement in frailty trajectories.